The Sabers ended 2021-22 with more optimism than you might expect from a team that finished in the bottom 10 of the standings and missed the playoffs for the 11th straight season. The way the team finished was a source of hope, however.
Coming out of the all-star break, the Sabers played at an 88-point pace. Their 35 points from March 2 through the end of the season were good for 12th-best in the NHL over that stretch. The team got positive feedback from the Jack Eichel trade, saw promising play from the likes of Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power and overcame a string of injuries early in the season to put together a strong finish.
Now comes the hard part. Dismantling a list is easier than creating a backup of it. As encouraging as the end of the season has been, general manager Kevyn Adams must now make the right choices to keep this team heading in the right direction while avoiding the mistakes that have derailed past rebuilding efforts.
“You can’t move fast,” Adams said at the end of the season.
“Some decisions you can make in the short term that might push you a little further, that might come back to haunt you a little later. We have to be really disciplined and careful when we put this in place.
As the draft and free agency draw closer, here are some pressing questions that will define this offseason for Adams and the Sabers.
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1. Who will play the role of goalkeeper?
The pool of Sabers prospect goaltenders is solid. Northeastern’s Devon Levi and Michigan’s Erik Portillo present the organization with two promising players to develop, assuming they can sign them to entry-level deals. But the current situation between the pipes is worrying. Craig Anderson had a big presence in the locker room last season, but he’s undecided about his NHL future and just turned 41 in May. If Anderson comes back, it’s not enough to consolidate Buffalo’s position. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen should be ready to play a bigger role in the NHL in the fall, but he’s yet to prove himself at that level and has had some unfortunate injuries. The Sabers should therefore add someone capable of sharing the net with him. With Anderson, Dustin Tokarski and Malcolm Subban all free agents, the Sabers might need to add several veterans to the roster.
Marc-Andre Fleury is the biggest name available in free agency, but his market will determine whether the Sabers can be legit players for him. He would be an ideal veteran to add to the mix with plenty of young players on the roster. But he will have other suitors. Maybe Fleury’s former teammate Alex Tuch can lure him to Buffalo.
Among other candidates in the free agent market, Colorado’s Darcy Kuemper will be sought. He has five shutouts and a .921 save percentage in 57 games this season. That kind of reliability would help take the pressure off Luukkonen. Ville Husso will also be available. In 40 games for the Blues last season, Husso ranked among the top 10 in the league for goals saved above expectations. Jack Campbell and Braden Holtby are also among the experienced veterans whose contracts expire this summer.
The Sabers could trade for a goaltender. Would the Ducks like to trade John Gibson? What about the Jets and Connor Hellebuyck? Trading for a goaltender of that caliber would require giving up assets, so the Sabers would like to make sure he’s a player who can adapt for over a year.
2. How much will the Sabers be willing to spend?
Buffalo enters the offseason with $35 million in projected cap space, according to CapFriendly. That’s enough for the Sabers to make a splash in free agency if they choose to. Just because they have the cap space doesn’t mean they’ll throw it at the top free agents unrestricted. In fact, one of the team’s first moves this offseason was to trade for goaltender Ben Bishop, who will not continue his career due to a knee injury. The Sabers made this trade because his cap will exceed the actual money the team must pay him. They can get close to the salary cap floor without spending any money.
That may lead you to think the Sabers will be cheap this offseason, but that would be premature. The team has plenty of time to add veteran elements in areas like goalkeeping and right back. And being closer to the salary cap floor is where this team is in its rebuild. The roster could feature young players like Jack Quinn, Peyton Krebbs and JJ Peterka on their entry-level contracts. The Sabers don’t want to fill their roster with too many expensive veterans who could lock those players out of ice time. And agency hasn’t really been a lasting way to build a winner in the NHL. When the teams are close, a player here or there can put them on top. But free agency won’t solve all of the roster’s problems.
Adams filled the short-term free agent roster last offseason. Now the team must decide what to do with unrestricted free agents Cody Eakin, John Hayden and Vinnie Hinostroza up front, as well as Will Butcher, Colin Miller and Mark Psysk on defense. They also have restricted free agents to support, starting with Victor Olofsson, Jacob Bryson, Brandon Biro, Brett Murray, Arttu Ruotsalainen and Luukkonen. Reaching the salary cap floor shouldn’t require spending just for the sake of it.
Adams must also budget for future contracts for players like Thompson, who is a restricted free agent after next season. Dahlin still has two seasons left on his contract, as does Power. Dylan Cozens will be a restricted free agent next season. If the Sabers want to keep their cap space healthy, they can’t repeat the expenses that got them into trouble. The team’s spending habits this offseason might not signal anything about an internal budget, but rather say something about how Adams and Granato view this team for next season. When the team has become a competitor, that’s when spending up to the ceiling makes more sense and the property will need to show a willingness to open the checkbook.
3. Will the Sabers keep all three first-round picks?
The last time the Sabers had three first-round picks in a draft was in 2015. Tim Murray used the first selection to take Eichel, then dealt the final two first-round picks in trades for Evander Kane and Robin Lehner. He also traded the No. 1 pick in the second round in a forfeit that landed Ryan O’Reilly’s Sabers. After several seasons of racing at the bottom of the standings to improve the draft position, Murray thought the team was ready to compete and turned the picks over to the veterans. Building the team this way turned out to be a disaster.
Seven years later, Adams has a similar collection of picks but has already shown different demeanor than Murray. Adams and Granato are committed to building a strong pipeline of prospects and developing talent within the organization. They try to stay patient, so any trade they make has to fit the long term view. They’re not going to sell out for older players at the expense of ice time for players who have grown in the system.
That said, when you have three first-round picks, you have a lot of flexibility. Adams may not be full Murray, but that doesn’t mean a sensible hockey trade isn’t on the table in the first round. This project is considered unpredictable by those who have studied the prospects closely. This means Adams will have to be ready to adjust on the fly depending on how the board is dropping. Having multiple first-round picks can be a luxury if managed properly.
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4. Who will be Buffalo’s next captain?
The Sabers wisely waited to hand over the captaincy after stripping Eichel of the role in 2021. They wanted the team’s leadership to grow organically. Two strong candidates have emerged for captain over the course of the season. One is Kyle Okposo, who just turned 34 but is also coming off his first 20-goal season as a Saber. He is in the final season of his contract, so the team may want to decide on his future before handing him the captaincy. But he could also handle the job for a season while Alex Tuch becomes more established in Buffalo. Tuch looked and sounded like captain’s gear from the moment he arrived in Western New York on the Eichel Trade. At 26, he is at the ideal age to settle permanently in this role. The Sabers also have potential captains in Cozens and Dahlin. The approach of waiting for these players to find their footing naturally seemed to work last season. So if they want to continue this approach for another year, giving Okposo the short-term captaincy might make the most sense. With Adams emphasizing culture during this build, it’s important to make this right call.
5. How will the Sabers handle Russian prospects?
No one in the NHL seems to have a clear idea what will happen with Russian players in the upcoming NHL Draft. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added another layer of uncertainty about how easily teams can bring Russian prospects to North America. The Sabers recently signed 2021 draft pick Aleksandr Kisakov to an entry-level contract. He was one of four Russians drafted by the team last season, so it’s worth wondering if the Sabers will continue to make that connection in this draft. They’re in an interesting position because they have multiple first-round picks and can afford to take risks where other teams might not want to. How far should a player like Danila Yurov fall in the draft before the Sabers are comfortable taking him? There are risks involved, but Adams trusted the team’s Russian scouting last summer. This draft could present another opportunity to make that connection with Russian players and get discounted prospects in this draft.
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